Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 20.230284 23.578225 27.621401 32.964887 40.003297 49.208895 62.622584
2025-01-19 15.450814 19.069868 23.860025 30.932424 41.637902 58.299716 88.934418
2025-01-26 14.787217 19.239066 25.668297 36.295276 55.070269 91.372491 185.584930
2025-02-02 13.628715 18.371373 25.646002 38.708790 64.808138 126.119878 359.576346
2025-02-09 11.937614 16.389204 23.437356 36.680090 65.091594 140.616626 527.849368
2025-02-16 11.217698 15.768448 23.278465 38.278554 73.879682 188.542955 1258.123981
2025-02-23 10.404543 14.873377 22.472516 38.359299 79.181282 234.630729 3383.767356
2025-03-02 9.694343 14.053729 21.656388 38.190244 83.834356 289.155968 17169.075049
2025-03-09 9.178032 13.496952 21.227876 38.756566 91.134100 380.261899 NaN
2025-03-16 8.473067 12.543309 19.918505 36.976391 89.977362 416.784438 NaN
2025-03-23 8.039373 12.024517 19.384292 36.951273 95.127348 532.130531 NaN
2025-03-30 7.490444 11.255043 18.267095 35.245404 93.170755 574.287971 NaN
2025-04-06 6.866839 10.337944 16.826608 32.633227 87.254116 561.789158 NaN
2025-04-13 6.355096 9.592989 15.675806 30.618903 83.186368 570.510598 NaN
2025-04-20 6.525496 10.098907 17.135486 35.897001 115.256054 1864.131717 NaN
2025-04-27 6.423271 10.084797 17.496617 38.270570 137.629225 5876.709742 NaN
2025-05-04 6.029343 9.482675 16.496398 36.275483 132.373613 6712.225556 NaN
2025-05-11 5.902260 9.386615 16.617736 37.847531 152.621994 54653.639037 NaN
2025-05-18 5.692431 9.112377 16.301259 37.926928 163.059350 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 5.485290 8.829274 15.934963 37.760695 171.914244 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 5.332942 8.645254 15.783144 38.317540 188.789548 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 5.071681 8.226410 15.032405 36.566928 181.358799 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 4.915988 8.013687 14.763126 36.542222 192.359604 NaN NaN